Evaluation & Quality
Prediction interval
A range meant to include a plausible future value, rather than giving only one predicted number.
Example
A sales forecast gives a likely range instead of just one number.
Why people use it
It shows a plausible range for a future result instead of only one estimate.
What you'll hear
“What range should we plan for?”
What this means for you
Ask how often earlier ranges contained the actual results.
Can you control it?
No
No direct control. This describes a wider issue, concept or result rather than something you can simply switch on or off in a tool.
Common questions
- Is a prediction interval the same as uncertainty about an average?
- No. It also concerns variability in the future observation itself.
- Does a wider interval mean the prediction is useless?
- No. It may honestly show that the future result is difficult to pin down.
- Can an interval miss the eventual result?
- Yes. Its stated coverage is a long-run aim under assumptions, not a guarantee for every case.